19/06/2012 Tous les articles
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2012: Gauging value
Risk related to the European Monetary Union has cast an overwhelmingly dark cloud over financial markets, temporarily hiding genuine value created by private companies. “Correlated asset classes have increased the imperative to identify value-investment opportunities and portfolio diversification – as demonstrated by the significant outperformance of companies highlighted by our thematic research in recent quarters,” says Didier Duret, Chief Investment Officer of ABN AMRO Private Banking.
Continued value and portfolio diversification are seen in companies operating at the crossroads of ‘megatrends’ – industries in which demand has proved robust during the economic downturn or in which a strong dividend policy has been preserved. Likewise, hedge funds can provide insurance against economic and policy risks. While high-quality corporate bonds are preferred– particularly in Asia – the bank remains wary of safe-haven government debt, with record low yields vulnerable to interest-rate rises. Gold continues to be viewed as decoupled from fundamentals and Brent oil is not expected to fall below USD 100 per barrel during the third quarter. Property is seen to offer attractive valuations and for private equity, the bank recommends secondary buyouts, small- to mid-market emerging market funds and venture-capital funds of funds.
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